My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

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My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 1st, 2013, 10:25 pm

This is my own rating system that rates teams based on wins, margin of victory (max 16 to disregard teams that run up the score), and opponent W/L record.
Since wins are the most important part of the game, I've made losses more detrimental than wins (as they usually are in polls). And this is not MY top 25, rather a rearranging of the AP top 25 just to see who belongs and who doesn't.

My "ranking") Name Rating [AP Rank] (Difference (+ for underrated AP teams))

Reordering the AP Top 25
1)  FlSU 10.1500 [8] (+7)
2) Wash 9.2750 [15] (+13)
3) Alab 9.2000 [1] (-2)
4) Oreg 7.8000 [2] (-2)
5) UCLA 7.5555 [12] (+7)
6) Bayl 7.4666 [17] (+11)
7) Stan 7.4250 [5] (-2)
8 ) TxTc 6.8500 [20] (+12)
9) Clem 6.8125 [3] (-6)
10) NorW 6.3416 [16] (+6)
11) Loui 6.2750 [7] (-4)
12) Mryl 6.1500 [25] (+13)
13) Okla 6.0500 [11] (-2)
14) OkSt 5.1000 [21] (+7)
15) LoSU 5.0300 [10] (-5)
16) OhSU 4.8400 [4] (-12)
17) Miam 3.3375 [14] (-3)
18) Mich 2.8000 [19] (+1)
19) FrSt 2.5875 [23] (+4)
20) SCar 2.3750 [13] (-7)
21) Geor 0.9125 [6] (-15)
22) TAMU -0.6000 [9] (-13)
23) Flor -1.5500 [18] (-5)
24) AzSt -13.2000 [22] (-2)
25) Miss -16.6000 [24] (-1)

Most overrated: UGA (15 spots higher in AP Poll than ranking here)
Most underrated: Washington and Maryland (13 spots lower in AP poll than here)


I was actually surprised that FSU got the top spot. The main reason for that is that FCS teams count as much as FBS foes, and BCU is 3-1. With this rating system, beating 1-loss teams is the best you can do (since you can't beat undefeated teams). And since FSU blew them out, they got a MOV of 16, which really helped their ranking.

And I screwed up 24/25. I'll fix it. I fixed it. I fucked up on the calculation of losing to undefeated teams.

Correct Ratings:

Reordering the AP Top 25
1)  FlSU 10.1500 [8] 
2) Wash 9.2750 [15]
3) Alab 9.2000 [1]
4) Oreg 7.8000 [2]
5) UCLA 7.5555 [12]
6) Bayl 7.4666 [17]
7) Stan 7.4250 [5]
8 ) TxTc 6.8500 [20]
9) Clem 6.8125 [3]
10) NorW 6.3416 [16]
11) Loui 6.2750 [7]
12) Mryl 6.1500 [25]
13) TAMU 6.1200 [9]
14) Okla 6.0500 [11]
15) OkSt 5.1000 [21]
16) LoSU 5.0300 [10]
17) OhSU 4.8400 [4]
18) Geor 4.5125 [6]
19) Flor 4.4500 [18]
20) AzSt 3.6000 [22]
21) Miam 3.3375 [14]
22) Mich 2.8000 [19]
23) Miss 2.6000 [25]
24) FrSt 2.5875 [23]
25) SCar 2.3750 [13]


Most Overrated: Ohio State :dog
Last edited by FuckESPNdotCOM on October 2nd, 2013, 1:27 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FlatEarth » October 1st, 2013, 10:41 pm

:facepalm

You actually spent time on this garbage?

1/10
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 1st, 2013, 11:09 pm

Gurley4Heisman wrote::facepalm

You actually spent time on this garbage?

1/10

Thanks, 20. I can always count on you to add meaningful discussion to my meaningless calculations. :lolthumb

I think the sting you're feeling is from UGA being the most overrated. It wouldn't be that way if you beat Clemson. You would probably be top 10 if the scores were reversed from that game. Plus you haven't managed to max out your MOV against anyone except the Mean Green of North Texas.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby gatrnation1 » October 1st, 2013, 11:36 pm

FuckESPNdotCOM wrote:
Gurley4Heisman wrote::facepalm

You actually spent time on this garbage?

1/10

Thanks, 20. I can always count on you to add meaningful discussion to my meaningless calculations. :lolthumb

I think the sting you're feeling is from UGA being the most overrated. It wouldn't be that way if you beat Clemson. You would probably be top 10 if the scores were reversed from that game. Plus you haven't managed to max out your MOV against anyone except the Mean Green of North Texas.


FSU #1 figures coming from a FSU homo. Their SOS is crap! :dog
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 12:04 am

gatrnation1 wrote:
FuckESPNdotCOM wrote:
Gurley4Heisman wrote::facepalm

You actually spent time on this garbage?

1/10

Thanks, 20. I can always count on you to add meaningful discussion to my meaningless calculations. :lolthumb

I think the sting you're feeling is from UGA being the most overrated. It wouldn't be that way if you beat Clemson. You would probably be top 10 if the scores were reversed from that game. Plus you haven't managed to max out your MOV against anyone except the Mean Green of North Texas.


FSU #1 figures coming from a FSU homo. Their SOS is crap! :dog

Thanks for making it that weak, Gatas.

And FYI, Oregon was #1 my last poll that I voted with.
Last edited by FuckESPNdotCOM on October 2nd, 2013, 2:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby HUNKERED DOWN DAWG » October 2nd, 2013, 12:20 am

FuckESPNdotCOM wrote:This is my own rating system that rates teams based on wins, margin of victory (max 16 to disregard teams that run up the score), and opponent W/L record.
Since wins are the most important part of the game, I've made losses more detrimental than wins (as they usually are in polls). And this is not MY top 25, rather a rearranging of the AP top 25 just to see who belongs and who doesn't.

My "ranking") Name Rating [AP Rank] (Difference (+ for underrated AP teams))

Reordering the AP Top 25
1)  FlSU 10.1500 [8] (+7)
2) Wash 9.2750 [15] (+13)
3) Alab 9.2000 [1] (-2)
4) Oreg 7.8000 [2] (-2)
5) UCLA 7.5555 [12] (+7)
6) Bayl 7.4666 [17] (+11)
7) Stan 7.4250 [5] (-2)
8 ) TxTc 6.8500 [20] (+12)
9) Clem 6.8125 [3] (-6)
10) NorW 6.3416 [16] (+6)
11) Loui 6.2750 [7] (-4)
12) Mryl 6.1500 [25] (+13)
13) Okla 6.0500 [11] (-2)
14) OkSt 5.1000 [21] (+7)
15) LoSU 5.0300 [10] (-5)
16) OhSU 4.8400 [4] (-12)
17) Miam 3.3375 [14] (-3)
18) Mich 2.8000 [19] (+1)
19) FrSt 2.5875 [23] (+4)
20) SCar 2.3750 [13] (-7)
21) Geor 0.9125 [6] (-15)
22) TAMU -0.6000 [9] (-13)
23) Flor -1.5500 [18] (-5)
24) AzSt -13.2000 [22] (-2)
25) Miss -16.6000 [24] (-1)

Most overrated: UGA (15 spots higher in AP Poll than ranking here)
Most underrated: Washington and Maryland (13 spots lower in AP poll than here)

I was actually surprised that FSU got the top spot. The main reason for that is that FCS teams count as much as FBS foes, and BCU is 3-1 (since you can't beat undefeated teams). With this rating system, beating 1-loss teams is the best you can do. And since FSU blew them out, they got a MOV of 16, which really helped their ranking.

And I screwed up 24/25. I'll fix it. I fixed it.



So, basically SOS is nonexistent? And therefore in your computations FSU is on the same level as savannah state? :shock: :thought
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 12:51 am

HUNKERED DOWN DAWG wrote:So, basically SOS is nonexistent? And therefore in your computations FSU is on the same level as savannah state? :shock: :thought

Thanks for bringing this up. I checked the outputs of some losers and realized there was an issue with my remedy for teams with either 0 wins or 0 losses (to avoid divide by 0 issues)
Actually, SOS matters a lot. But I fucked up with the math and forgot to add the correct conditional for losing to undefeated teams.
I'm an idiot. I'll fix the program and post the new results.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 12:59 am

Georgia's new rating is 4.5125
That sounds a lot better.

Basically all the ratings ar correct except for teams that have lost to undefeated teams.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 1:15 am

I fixed the rankings with teams like UF, UGA, AzSU, Miss, and TAMU all losing to undefeated teams.

Ohio State is the new most-undeserving-of-its-AP-ranking team.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FSUKW » October 2nd, 2013, 1:47 am

Gotta be honest. Kudos for the effort, but you had to know putting FSU #1 in SOS would draw criticism.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 2:01 am

FSUKW wrote:Gotta be honest. Kudos for the effort, but you had to know putting FSU #1 in SOS would draw criticism.

It's not a ranking of SOS. It's ratings based on SOS. It's also based on score.

For example, TAMU is the highest rated 1-loss team because they only lost by 7 to an undefeated team and blew out pretty much everyone else.
Georgia isn't as high because while they only lost by 3 to an undefeated Clemson team, they only beat a couple one loss teams by smaller margins.

Here is a rundown of how UF's rating was calculated
Type YourScore OppScore OppWins OppLosses
24 6 2 3 Games played: 1
That game was worth 6.4. MOV * oppWL ratio = 16 * (2 / 5) = 6.4
Quality running total: 6.4.
Net score: 16
oRatio: 0.4
Rating: 6.4 Quality Running Total / numGames


Type YourScore OppScore OppWins OppLosses
16 21 4 0 Games played: 2
That game was worth -1.
Quality running total: 5.4.
Net score: -5
oRatio: 0.2 (0 + 1) / (4 + 1) to avoid divide by 0 errors. oppWLratio is reversed for losses
Rating: 2.7


Type YourScore OppScore OppWins OppLosses
31 17 3 2 Games played: 3
That game was worth 8.4.
Quality running total: 13.8.
Net score: 14
oRatio: 0.6
Rating: 4.6


Type YourScore OppScore OppWins OppLosses
24 7 1 3 Games played: 4
That game was worth 4.
Quality running total: 17.8.
Net score: 16
oRatio: 0.25
Rating: 4.45




F I N A L S C O R E : 4.45
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby Beaver3332 » October 2nd, 2013, 2:23 am

How the fuck does FSU end up number 1 they blew out Pitt, Nevade, and Bethune then struggled vs BC :wtf
Miami Blew out 3 shitty teams too and we beat UF.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby mrfree » October 2nd, 2013, 2:25 am

LeBron>jordan
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FlatEarth » October 2nd, 2013, 2:50 am

Beaver3332 wrote:How the fuck does FSU end up number 1 they blew out Pitt, Nevade, and Bethune then struggled vs BC :wtf
Miami Blew out 3 shitty teams too and we beat UF.

This clown is just trolling.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby Muck FcDisney » October 2nd, 2013, 2:54 am

Gurley4Heisman wrote:This clown is just trolling.


Your honesty is appreciated, but you're gonna blow your cover! :sh

What was your top 25 again?
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 3:03 am

Beaver3332 wrote:How the fuck does FSU end up number 1 they blew out Pitt, Nevade, and Bethune then struggled vs BC :wtf
Miami Blew out 3 shitty teams too and we beat UF.

Pitt is 3-1 = good
Nevada is 3-2 = above average
BCU is 3-1 = good
BC is 2-2 = average
---
FAU is 1-4 = very bad
SSU is 1-4 = very bad
USF is 0-4 = awful
UF is 3-1 = good
---
See the difference? It's based on records and a max margin of victory, not names.
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby JdPat04 » October 2nd, 2013, 8:53 am

The only difference I would chane is your MoV.... NO coach will stop at 16 points... It should be 22/25/29points IMO


That means for that opponent to come back and win they'd have to score
22= 3tds and another point or convert 2 PTs
25 = 3tds + 1 FG + score or 2pt
29 = 4tds & 2pts or a FG to win the game.



No coach would stop at 16 points to where it is a tie game with 2 TDs and 2pts = OT or 2tds and a FG to win
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby Beaver3332 » October 2nd, 2013, 3:31 pm

FuckESPNdotCOM wrote:
Beaver3332 wrote:How the fuck does FSU end up number 1 they blew out Pitt, Nevade, and Bethune then struggled vs BC :wtf
Miami Blew out 3 shitty teams too and we beat UF.

Pitt is 3-1 = good
Nevada is 3-2 = above average
BCU is 3-1 = good
BC is 2-2 = average
---
FAU is 1-4 = very bad
SSU is 1-4 = very bad
USF is 0-4 = awful
UF is 3-1 = good
---
See the difference? It's based on records and a max margin of victory, not names.

:biglol Bethune is good in your formula
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Re: My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25

Postby FuckESPNdotCOM » October 2nd, 2013, 4:08 pm

Beaver3332 wrote:
FuckESPNdotCOM wrote:
Beaver3332 wrote:How the fuck does FSU end up number 1 they blew out Pitt, Nevade, and Bethune then struggled vs BC :wtf
Miami Blew out 3 shitty teams too and we beat UF.

Pitt is 3-1 = good
Nevada is 3-2 = above average
BCU is 3-1 = good
BC is 2-2 = average
---
FAU is 1-4 = very bad
SSU is 1-4 = very bad
USF is 0-4 = awful
UF is 3-1 = good
---
See the difference? It's based on records and a max margin of victory, not names.

:biglol Bethune is good in your formula

I know it's not perfect. I even said some of the shortcomings are rating FCS like FBS foes. The reason I don't throw them out entirely is because some FBS teams (FIU, USF, KSU) lose to FCS teams, and I feel that should count against them.

It's a very simple, basic comparison calculation. If I went any deeper, I would have to add many more variables and I sure as hell don't want to go recursive on this motherfucker.

Keep in mind that ratings can change drastically every single week. I mean even the previous weeks ratings will change next week because of new W-L records of opponents. It's built on the records. It's actually a lot better at the end of the year. All this system really proves is that ranking teams at the beginning of the year is a mistake.
Pitt is 3-1 = good = 0.75 quality win
Nevada is 3-2 = 0.60 quality win
BCU is 3-1 = 0.75 quality win
BC is 2-2 = 0.50 quality win
---
FAU is 1-4 = very bad = 0.20 quality win
SSU is 1-4 = very bad = 0.20 quality win
USF is 0-4 = awful = 0.166 quality win (1/6)
UF is 3-1 = good = 0.75 quality win



And to address your "Miami [and FSU] beat shitty teams," Nevada is actually rated really low right now. I think they're 13th from the bottom because all 3 teams they've beaten have 4 losses. But they have a record of 3-2. I realize this skews rankings (with Nevada's quality and many others), and I don't do it on purpose. I just acknowledge the issues inherent in the system, as all ranking/rating systems have shortcomings.
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