Muck FcDisney wrote:FuckESPNdotCOM wrote:ericberry14 wrote:I think something is wrong with your formula
Which part/team?
Needs to take opponent winning % one more step.
Beating a 7-1 team whose opponents have a combined record of 40-24 is not the same as beating a 7-1 team whose opponents have a combined record of 24-40.
And Louisville should be well ahead of Miami and UNC, and Dook should be nowhere near the top 25. How much credit are you giving Dook for beating the Lafayette Leopards (7-1, FCS)? Dook's other wins are against 5-3 NCST, 4-4 Clemsuck, 4-4 Northwestern and 1-7 UConn. :jerkit
I don't disagree with you.
Actually all FCS teams have the same weight now as a single "FBS" team (an introduced flaw as not all FCS teams are the same); currently they're 4-106. I also changed the divide by 0 math to add +1 and +11 to the respective categories. FSU, Georgia, Michigan, etc are all 8-0, so +11 +1 = 19-1. Back in 2013 (totally different system) it would treat them as +1 +1, or 9-1. The converse is Sam Houston is 0-8, but treated as 1-19.
Margin of victory also matters. Duke's lowest margin of victory is 21 in all their wins. That's superb. Now their losses have obviously taken their toll, but losing to teams that are a combined 22-3 is not going to hurt the total much---some, but not much.
Similarly, beating trash teams by a single TD isn't going to help your rep much, either. Louisville totally wiped out their ND win (and then some) with their loss to Pitt.
Here's the log for Duke:
Now let's take a look at Louisville:
And finally, UNC:
NOTE: Not all games are in chronological order, but it doesn't matter for this system.
Now tell me how Louisville is miles better than Duke and UNC. Their season performances don't support that assertion. The great thing about this system is that it never forgets a single performance. Duke has played better opponents than either UNC or Louisville.