My SOS-based ratings of the AP Top 25
Posted: October 1st, 2013, 10:25 pmThis is my own rating system that rates teams based on wins, margin of victory (max 16 to disregard teams that run up the score), and opponent W/L record.
Since wins are the most important part of the game, I've made losses more detrimental than wins (as they usually are in polls). And this is not MY top 25, rather a rearranging of the AP top 25 just to see who belongs and who doesn't.
My "ranking") Name Rating [AP Rank] (Difference (+ for underrated AP teams))
Reordering the AP Top 25
Most overrated: UGA (15 spots higher in AP Poll than ranking here)
Most underrated: Washington and Maryland (13 spots lower in AP poll than here)
I was actually surprised that FSU got the top spot. The main reason for that is that FCS teams count as much as FBS foes, and BCU is 3-1. With this rating system, beating 1-loss teams is the best you can do (since you can't beat undefeated teams). And since FSU blew them out, they got a MOV of 16, which really helped their ranking.
And I screwed up 24/25. I'll fix it. I fixed it. I fucked up on the calculation of losing to undefeated teams.
Correct Ratings:
Reordering the AP Top 25
Most Overrated: Ohio State :dog
Since wins are the most important part of the game, I've made losses more detrimental than wins (as they usually are in polls). And this is not MY top 25, rather a rearranging of the AP top 25 just to see who belongs and who doesn't.
My "ranking") Name Rating [AP Rank] (Difference (+ for underrated AP teams))
Reordering the AP Top 25
1) FlSU 10.1500 [8] (+7)
2) Wash 9.2750 [15] (+13)
3) Alab 9.2000 [1] (-2)
4) Oreg 7.8000 [2] (-2)
5) UCLA 7.5555 [12] (+7)
6) Bayl 7.4666 [17] (+11)
7) Stan 7.4250 [5] (-2)
8 ) TxTc 6.8500 [20] (+12)
9) Clem 6.8125 [3] (-6)
10) NorW 6.3416 [16] (+6)
11) Loui 6.2750 [7] (-4)
12) Mryl 6.1500 [25] (+13)
13) Okla 6.0500 [11] (-2)
14) OkSt 5.1000 [21] (+7)
15) LoSU 5.0300 [10] (-5)
16) OhSU 4.8400 [4] (-12)
17) Miam 3.3375 [14] (-3)
18) Mich 2.8000 [19] (+1)
19) FrSt 2.5875 [23] (+4)
20) SCar 2.3750 [13] (-7)
21) Geor 0.9125 [6] (-15)
22) TAMU -0.6000 [9] (-13)
23) Flor -1.5500 [18] (-5)
24) AzSt -13.2000 [22] (-2)
25) Miss -16.6000 [24] (-1)
Most overrated: UGA (15 spots higher in AP Poll than ranking here)
Most underrated: Washington and Maryland (13 spots lower in AP poll than here)
I was actually surprised that FSU got the top spot. The main reason for that is that FCS teams count as much as FBS foes, and BCU is 3-1. With this rating system, beating 1-loss teams is the best you can do (since you can't beat undefeated teams). And since FSU blew them out, they got a MOV of 16, which really helped their ranking.
And I screwed up 24/25. I'll fix it. I fixed it. I fucked up on the calculation of losing to undefeated teams.
Correct Ratings:
Reordering the AP Top 25
1) FlSU 10.1500 [8]
2) Wash 9.2750 [15]
3) Alab 9.2000 [1]
4) Oreg 7.8000 [2]
5) UCLA 7.5555 [12]
6) Bayl 7.4666 [17]
7) Stan 7.4250 [5]
8 ) TxTc 6.8500 [20]
9) Clem 6.8125 [3]
10) NorW 6.3416 [16]
11) Loui 6.2750 [7]
12) Mryl 6.1500 [25]
13) TAMU 6.1200 [9]
14) Okla 6.0500 [11]
15) OkSt 5.1000 [21]
16) LoSU 5.0300 [10]
17) OhSU 4.8400 [4]
18) Geor 4.5125 [6]
19) Flor 4.4500 [18]
20) AzSt 3.6000 [22]
21) Miam 3.3375 [14]
22) Mich 2.8000 [19]
23) Miss 2.6000 [25]
24) FrSt 2.5875 [23]
25) SCar 2.3750 [13]
Most Overrated: Ohio State :dog