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Some Computer Ranking Models Just Don't Make Sense

PostPosted: October 1st, 2013, 4:59 pm
by gatrnation1
1 Oregon 4 0 86.42 40.30 59.75 10.75
2 Alabama 4 0 81.71 58.88 35.00 14.50
3 Baylor 3 0 75.01 36.28 69.67 7.67
4 Florida State 4 0 73.72 44.51 51.25 15.00
5 L.S.U. 4 1 72.44 53.11 42.80 24.40
6 Georgia 3 1 71.64 62.28 41.25 32.50
7 Ohio State 5 0 70.88 43.69 48.20 17.00
8 Texas A&M 4 1 70.32 54.21 49.20 30.80
9 Oklahoma 4 0 70.23 47.26 34.00 12.00
10 Clemson 4 0 69.17 47.76 43.00 17.25
11 Wisconsin 3 2 69.16 46.56 37.60 14.60
12 Stanford 4 0 68.74 49.13 41.25 19.50
13 Oklahoma State 3 1 67.95 43.17 39.25 17.75
14 Louisville 4 0 67.63 34.42 48.00 6.75
15 Florida 3 1 67.51 53.09 23.75 12.75
16 Arizona State 3 1 66.87 57.33 44.25 28.25
17 UCLA 3 0 66.75 41.14 52.67 18.00
18 South Carolina 3 1 65.97 58.82 30.00 25.25
19 Washington 4 0 64.75 45.77 39.75 10.75
20 Miami 4 0 64.56 33.59 45.25 12.50
21 Ole Miss 3 1 64.00 54.96 28.50 24.00
22 Missouri 4 0 63.53 43.58 45.50 21.00
23 Georgia Tech 3 1 63.45 43.41 36.50 12.75
24 T.C.U. 2 2 63.37 53.09 30.75 22.75
25 Utah State 3 2 63.34 43.69 40.40 17.00

LSU ahead of Georgia?
UF ahead of Miami?
Wisconsin ranked ahead of Stanford?
:crazy

Re: Some Computer Ranking Models Just Don't Make Sense

PostPosted: October 1st, 2013, 5:09 pm
by LSU62
too early in the season

Re: Some Computer Ranking Models Just Don't Make Sense

PostPosted: October 1st, 2013, 8:27 pm
by FuckESPNdotCOM
gatrnation1 wrote:1 Oregon 4 0 86.42 40.30 59.75 10.75
2 Alabama 4 0 81.71 58.88 35.00 14.50
3 Baylor 3 0 75.01 36.28 69.67 7.67
4 Florida State 4 0 73.72 44.51 51.25 15.00
5 L.S.U. 4 1 72.44 53.11 42.80 24.40
6 Georgia 3 1 71.64 62.28 41.25 32.50
7 Ohio State 5 0 70.88 43.69 48.20 17.00
8 Texas A&M 4 1 70.32 54.21 49.20 30.80
9 Oklahoma 4 0 70.23 47.26 34.00 12.00
10 Clemson 4 0 69.17 47.76 43.00 17.25
11 Wisconsin 3 2 69.16 46.56 37.60 14.60
12 Stanford 4 0 68.74 49.13 41.25 19.50
13 Oklahoma State 3 1 67.95 43.17 39.25 17.75
14 Louisville 4 0 67.63 34.42 48.00 6.75
15 Florida 3 1 67.51 53.09 23.75 12.75
16 Arizona State 3 1 66.87 57.33 44.25 28.25
17 UCLA 3 0 66.75 41.14 52.67 18.00
18 South Carolina 3 1 65.97 58.82 30.00 25.25
19 Washington 4 0 64.75 45.77 39.75 10.75
20 Miami 4 0 64.56 33.59 45.25 12.50
21 Ole Miss 3 1 64.00 54.96 28.50 24.00
22 Missouri 4 0 63.53 43.58 45.50 21.00
23 Georgia Tech 3 1 63.45 43.41 36.50 12.75
24 T.C.U. 2 2 63.37 53.09 30.75 22.75
25 Utah State 3 2 63.34 43.69 40.40 17.00

LSU ahead of Georgia?
UF ahead of Miami?
Wisconsin ranked ahead of Stanford?
:crazy

They make sense based on their rules, but not based in the subjective reality of CFB.
That's what you have to take into account- the fact that these computer polls don't take a look at rankings (not this one, anyway) and just looks probably at quality of competition (based W/L ratio), margin of victory, and record. It doesn't matter that Miami beat UF. It matters that Miami played a bunch of losers and a 3-1 team and is 4-0, while UF played better competition and only lost to an undefeated team.

They don't take into account head-to-head, which is actually understandable. As awesome as upsets are, does anyone think a 1-11 team that happened to beat an 11-1 team is actually better than the 11-1 team? It would be pure chaos to rank teams based on head-to-head, because there is so much parity and so many paper matchups that go the other way in reality.

Computer polls that disregard human polls are the most objective ways to rank teams. CFB is rock-paper-scissors, and these kinds of rankings are the most reliable because they aren't susceptible to media bias. I don't really disagree with much here, to tell you the truth.

Re: Some Computer Ranking Models Just Don't Make Sense

PostPosted: October 1st, 2013, 8:55 pm
by gatrnation1
The problem is you don't know what the programmer is using to rank the teams. I don't mind taking human bias out of the equation, but how can a team that just beat a team (Georgia vs LSU) win the game and be ranked lower. Both have the same W-L record and similar SOS.

Re: Some Computer Ranking Models Just Don't Make Sense

PostPosted: October 1st, 2013, 9:59 pm
by frazier9495
While some are fucked all season long, most computers become fairly accurate near the end of the season.

Re: Some Computer Ranking Models Just Don't Make Sense

PostPosted: October 1st, 2013, 11:34 pm
by gatrnation1
frazier9495 wrote:While some are fucked all season long, most computers become fairly accurate near the end of the season.


Unlike U.