Trump has offered National Guard assistance to governors. Many, if not all, Democrats have refused. Trump has threatened use of the Insurrection Act, which, as I understand gives the President the authority to send in the National Guard without governors' consent
If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act: He loses the election, as the media successfully attributes all subsequent protest- related deaths to Trump's direct action.
If he does not invoke the Insurrection Act: He wins, as he successfully attributes all subsequent death, looting, and property damage to Democratic leadership inaction.
In both scenarios, the winner will also successfully attribute any PREVIOUS death/ damage/ looting to the decisions of the loser, because, well, people are stupid like that. "Fact checkers" or "discredited, alt-right, Nazi-fascist conspiracy theorists" (depending on who wins) will point out the discrepancies, but it won't matter.
Neither winner's successful attribution will be correct, but it won't matter... because people are stupid like that. Truth doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is what people BELIEVE.
RESEARCH FLAT EARTH! WAKE UP, PEOPLE!